NWS Area Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KEPZ 102204 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 303 PM MST WED MAR 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE A FEW SHOWERS...MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND CONTINUE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BORDERLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES BACK UP NEAR NORMAL. NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. SOME HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. && .DISCUSSION... LAST NIGHT`S WIND AND WEATHER MAKER IS NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE NEXT SMALL UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NEVADA RIGHT ON IT`S HEELS. THIS SECOND LOW WILL MOVE TO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MID DAY THURSDAY. AS WITH THE FIRST LOW...THIS LOW WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...BUT PLENTY OF DYNAMICS WITH -29C H5 COLD POOL MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS. COLD POOL AND VORT LOBE TO SOUTH OF AREA BY AROUND NOON TIME OR SHORTLY AFTER SHOULD END ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL WAIT TIL JUST BEFORE PACKAGE DEADLINE BUT LIKELY WILL END THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MOSTLY BELOW CRITERIA...BUT WINDS ALONG EAST UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN NICELY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS AND WILL BRING ABOUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRI/SAT...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY. THIS IS ALL SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT GFS IS SHOWING FAIRLY DEEP LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...GFS...SHOWING QUITE HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SACS. UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION...VALID 11/00Z-12/00Z... WEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH WILL DIMINISH AFTER LOCAL SUNSET... WITH GUSTS HANGING ON FOR AN EXTRA HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT... WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO HIGH ELEVATION AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS UP. A MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TROUGH NM TOMORROW...BRINGING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW...BUT WILL IMPROVE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY FRIDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 20S IN THE LOWLAND DESERTS THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY... BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE LOWLANDS...AND RAIN/SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 39 58 33 63 35 / 10 10 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA TX 34 53 27 61 29 / 10 10 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 34 58 30 62 31 / 10 10 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 31 55 27 60 31 / 10 10 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 19 30 16 39 22 / 20 20 0 0 0 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 31 55 29 61 31 / 10 10 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 29 44 24 54 23 / 10 10 0 0 0 DEMING 31 58 27 63 28 / 10 10 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 33 56 27 63 27 / 10 10 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ022>025-030>032. TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056. && $$ HEFNER/HARDIMAN
NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion
