NWS Area Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KEPZ 052251 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 351 PM MST SUN FEB 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... COOL AND DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TO OUR NORTH...CONTINUES TO SEND COOLER AIR OUR WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM LATER IN THE WORK WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION IN STORE FOR OUR AREA...AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEV ELOPES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. && .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS PAIR OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. SURFACE/UPPER AIR ANALYSES DEPICTS IDENTIFIES TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH MOVEMENT BEGINNING TO SLOW AS FORECAST BY POPULAR MODELS. FACTOR LEADING TO SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS A WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS...REMAIN IN PLACE. THUS AGREE WITH MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS IN KEEPING LOW AS A CUT OFF FEATURE COLORADO FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE LOW...EACH WILL BRING SUBTLE REINFORCEMENT TO OUR SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL BE FORCED TO HEAD EAST TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES KICKS THE FEATURE OUT OF THE AREA. THINGS GET INTERESTING STARTING MID WEEK...AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ...TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL START TO INTRODUCE WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND W TX LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE IS IMPROVING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG GFS...AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS...IN FORECASTING TRACK OF LOW ACROSS OUR SOUTH AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL PLACE IS US IN DESCENT PROXIMITY TO NE QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE...FOR POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID WEEK...GIVEN DYNAMICS AND TRAJECTORIES FROM SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING NORTH AROUND THIS FEATURE. PREVIOUS FORECAST HINTING AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANCES MADE. NORTHERLY FLOW CARRIES ADDITIONAL WEAKER DISTURBANCE SOUTHWARD OVER US LATE IN THE WEEK. THESE TYPICALLY BRING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PROVIDE GOOD UP SLOPE COMPONENT TO FLOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. GIVEN EXPECTED MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM MID WEEK SYSTEM...WE SHOULD HAVE INGREDIENTS SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND FOR ANOTHER RANGE OR TWO FURTHER WEST. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...VALID 06/00Z-07/00Z. VFR CONDS THRU PD WITH FEW050 SCT-BKN200-250 EXPECTED. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL DECREASE BY 02Z TO AOB 10KTS AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT SWITCHING TO THE WSW AFT 12Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE REGION WILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER THE BORDERLAND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OUT OF THE EAST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 35 56 37 58 38 / 0 10 0 0 10 SIERRA BLANCA TX 30 53 34 53 35 / 10 10 10 0 10 LAS CRUCES 33 55 32 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 10 ALAMOGORDO 31 55 31 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 CLOUDCROFT 21 35 21 39 22 / 10 10 10 10 10 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 31 54 32 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 SILVER CITY 31 44 30 50 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 DEMING 30 55 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 LORDSBURG 30 57 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 22/26
NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion
