NWS Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 022119
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
315 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE BORDERLAND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
PATTERN RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
FRONT ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL COOL
DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL. BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STREAM TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
MOSTLY EAST OF DEMING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY FEW CLOUDS OR RAIN. A COLD FRONT NOW INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH THE SAC MOUNTAINS MID EVENING AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER...AND THEN TO THE ARIZONA BORDER
BY AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS
RELATIVELY STABLE AND DRY AT LOW LEVELS. FAIR AMOUNT OF CU...MAINLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT SHOULD BE
ABOUT IT. AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS REGIME...DEW POINTS WILL
INCREASE AND FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT...SO EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ABOUT 10-13 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...SO DESPITE
GOOD COLD ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...LOW LEVEL
STABILIZATION SHOULD INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. WEEKEND
SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

GFS ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
MONDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ECMWF SWEEPS THE MOISTURE
PLUME THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AS A BIT BETTER DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM
DRIVES IT EASTWARD. GFS IS LESS DEFINED WITH UPPER ENERGY AND HENCE
MOISTURE WILL STREAM UP PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW. THIS MEANS A BIT
LONGER DURATION WITH THE GFS...BUT WITH BEST...OR ANY...CHANCE OF
RAIN MAINLY EAST OF DEMING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH REGION OVERNIGHT REACHING KTCS
AROUND 06Z AND REMAINING TERMINALS AROUND 08Z-09Z. E TO NE WINDS OF
15G25KTS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH 15Z-18Z BEFORE
SLOWLY TAPERING OFF. ISOLD TS WITH ISOLD MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AFT
09Z...MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN NM AND FAR W TX.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
AROUND TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. A 3-5 DEGREE
WARMUP EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. WILL HELP TO BRING A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 80S WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  87  65  89  67 /  20  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        61  84  58  89  59 /  30  10  10  10  10
LAS CRUCES              66  86  62  89  64 /  20  10  10  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              62  85  58  88  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              46  63  39  68  43 /  30  10  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  84  60  86  61 /  20  10  10  10  10
SILVER CITY             58  78  54  80  55 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEMING                  64  87  60  89  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
LORDSBURG               64  87  60  89  62 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/GRZYWACZ

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion