NWS Area Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KEPZ 022119 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 315 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE BORDERLAND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL COOL DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL. BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STREAM TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT MOSTLY EAST OF DEMING. && .DISCUSSION... UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY WITH GENERALLY FEW CLOUDS OR RAIN. A COLD FRONT NOW INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE SAC MOUNTAINS MID EVENING AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER...AND THEN TO THE ARIZONA BORDER BY AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND DRY AT LOW LEVELS. FAIR AMOUNT OF CU...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS REGIME...DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AND FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT...SO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ABOUT 10-13 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...SO DESPITE GOOD COLD ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION SHOULD INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. GFS ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ECMWF SWEEPS THE MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AS A BIT BETTER DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM DRIVES IT EASTWARD. GFS IS LESS DEFINED WITH UPPER ENERGY AND HENCE MOISTURE WILL STREAM UP PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW. THIS MEANS A BIT LONGER DURATION WITH THE GFS...BUT WITH BEST...OR ANY...CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY EAST OF DEMING. && .AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z... A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH REGION OVERNIGHT REACHING KTCS AROUND 06Z AND REMAINING TERMINALS AROUND 08Z-09Z. E TO NE WINDS OF 15G25KTS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH 15Z-18Z BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF. ISOLD TS WITH ISOLD MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AFT 09Z...MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN NM AND FAR W TX. && .FIRE WEATHER... COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. A 3-5 DEGREE WARMUP EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL HELP TO BRING A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 69 87 65 89 67 / 20 10 10 10 10 SIERRA BLANCA TX 61 84 58 89 59 / 30 10 10 10 10 LAS CRUCES 66 86 62 89 64 / 20 10 10 10 10 ALAMOGORDO 62 85 58 88 60 / 20 10 10 10 10 CLOUDCROFT 46 63 39 68 43 / 30 10 10 10 10 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 84 60 86 61 / 20 10 10 10 10 SILVER CITY 58 78 54 80 55 / 20 10 10 10 10 DEMING 64 87 60 89 62 / 20 10 10 10 10 LORDSBURG 64 87 60 89 62 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ HEFNER/GRZYWACZ
NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion
