NWS Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191952
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
152 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BREEZY EVENING THEN CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DRY AND
WARM TOMORROW WITH A BREEZY AFTERNOON AND HIGHS NEAR 90. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL TAKE TEMPS
DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR TUESDAY...THEN CLIMBING TO THE LOW AND MID
90S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY
EDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH SHORT WAVE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. VERY DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW
WITH HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE BROADER FLOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TAKING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY. OVERALL PATTERN WILL SHIFT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP MOISTURE WELL TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND TAKE OUR
AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT TO OUR EAST
FRIDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THE RESULTING PATTERN MAY BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO ESTABLISH A DRY LINE OVER WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. IF A DRY LINE DOES DEVELOP...IT WOULD LIKELY
OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE BIG BEND AREA AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THIS WOULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE GFS
AND THE EURO ARE NO LONGER IN AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL PATTERN
WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THE EURO WOULD HAVE A DRIER SOLUTION WITH AN ELONGATED HIGH FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT
THE GFS KEEPS THE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
FOR A WETTER SOLUTION. MADE NO CHANGES IN 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST
BECAUSE OF THE MODEL DISPARITY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z-21/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. WEST WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AFT 02Z.
BECOMING BREEZY AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NM MONDAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LOW-END RED FLAG
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN A BELT EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN GILA REGION INTO SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTY. WINDS MAY STAY JUST
SHY OF CRITERIA IN SIERRA/EL PASO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES. ALSO DUE TO
TERRAIN EFFECTS...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER IN THE UPPER TULAROSA
BASIN EXCEPT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SAN ANDRES RANGE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT TEMPS
WILL VERY QUICKLY REBOUND BACK TO THE 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS ON
WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  91  67  89  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           62  91  59  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              59  88  55  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              59  86  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              44  65  40  62  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   59  85  58  85  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             53  80  50  83  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  55  86  52  87  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               53  84  51  87  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      67  89  64  86  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               55  86  52  87  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            64  92  62  91  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              56  80  55  79  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  64  91  64  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            61  89  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          66  88  64  86  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           49  87  47  86  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   57  84  58  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                58  87  58  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               58  89  55  89  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 52  74  46  73  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               44  73  41  74  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                43  73  39  73  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 48  75  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               56  79  53  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               55  83  55  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            48  75  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  57  80  51  81  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   48  84  47  88  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              39  79  37  84  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 54  82  51  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  57  86  53  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 54  85  53  86  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          58  87  55  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              54  82  50  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR NMZ111>113.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

21/25

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion