NWS Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 052251
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
351 PM MST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
TO OUR NORTH...CONTINUES TO SEND COOLER AIR OUR WAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM LATER IN THE WORK WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANGES
FOR PRECIPITATION IN STORE FOR OUR AREA...AS A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEV ELOPES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PASSES BY
TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS PAIR OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE
WESTERN STATES AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. SURFACE/UPPER AIR ANALYSES
DEPICTS IDENTIFIES TROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH
MOVEMENT BEGINNING TO SLOW AS FORECAST BY POPULAR MODELS.
FACTOR LEADING TO SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS A WEAK LA NINA
CONDITIONS...REMAIN IN PLACE. THUS AGREE WITH MAJORITY OF
SOLUTIONS IN KEEPING LOW AS A CUT OFF FEATURE COLORADO FOR NEXT
FEW DAYS. AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE
LOW...EACH WILL BRING SUBTLE REINFORCEMENT TO OUR SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW WILL BE FORCED TO HEAD
EAST TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STATES KICKS THE FEATURE OUT OF THE AREA.

THINGS GET INTERESTING STARTING MID WEEK...AS A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
...TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL START TO
INTRODUCE WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND W
TX LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE IS IMPROVING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG
GFS...AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS...IN FORECASTING TRACK OF LOW ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL PLACE IS US IN DESCENT PROXIMITY
TO NE QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE...FOR POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID WEEK...GIVEN DYNAMICS AND TRAJECTORIES
FROM SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING NORTH AROUND THIS FEATURE.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HINTING AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS GOOD. NO
CHANCES MADE.

NORTHERLY FLOW CARRIES ADDITIONAL WEAKER DISTURBANCE SOUTHWARD
OVER US LATE IN THE WEEK. THESE TYPICALLY BRING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND PROVIDE GOOD UP SLOPE COMPONENT TO FLOW OVER
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. GIVEN EXPECTED MOISTENING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM MID WEEK SYSTEM...WE SHOULD HAVE INGREDIENTS
SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW PRODUCTION OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND
FOR ANOTHER RANGE OR TWO FURTHER WEST. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE
EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WESTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID 06/00Z-07/00Z.
VFR CONDS THRU PD WITH FEW050 SCT-BKN200-250 EXPECTED. GUSTY EAST
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY 02Z TO AOB 10KTS AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT
SWITCHING TO THE WSW AFT 12Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REGION WILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH FOR MOST OF
THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEP AN
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
INCREASE OVER THE BORDERLAND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTY
WINDS WILL OCCUR OUT OF THE EAST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 35  56  37  58  38 /   0  10   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        30  53  34  53  35 /  10  10  10   0  10
LAS CRUCES              33  55  32  57  33 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              31  55  31  58  32 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              21  35  21  39  22 /  10  10  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   31  54  32  57  32 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             31  44  30  50  32 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEMING                  30  55  31  60  32 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               30  57  31  60  32 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion